In January 2026, shortly before US forces captured Venezuela’s then-President Nicolás Maduro, a new, anonymous account on the prediction market Polymarket bet on the leader’s removal from power, turning $32,000 into over $400,000 in profit. In March, more than 150 accounts bet on the timing of US strikes on Iran, with six traders together netting over $1.2 million. In April, more newly-created accounts perfectly timed bets that White House would announce a ceasefire.